โ๏ธ PRO MEMBERS FULL ANALYSIS | Thursday, August 13, 2026
๐ฐ GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD)
Current: $4351.61
๐ High: $4449.81 | ๐ Low: $4343.93
๐ Change: -57.32 (-1.30%)
๐ต US DOLLAR (DXY): 99.86 (Holding 100 zone, down -0.09% on day - neutral to mildly bearish for gold, dollar weakness not decisive enough to reverse today's selloff)
๐ฏ KEY LEVELS
๐ด Resistance: $4,400
๐ข Support: $4,350
๐ DAILY BIAS: BEARISH
Price rejected hard from the $4,449 intraday high and closed well off the top. that's a distribution candle, not a pullback. Bulls had every chance to defend $4,400 and failed. Favor selling rallies back into $4,390 to $4,400 unless price reclaims and closes above that zone.
๐ฅ BREAKOUT / PULLBACK SCENARIOS
- Bearish Case (Preferred): Price rejected $4,449 and cracked below $4,400 with force. Rallies into $4,390 to $4,405 are sell zones. Targets on continuation lower: $4,320 first, then $4,300 if $4,350 breaks on a daily close. Do not chase shorts below $4,344 intraday. wait for the retest.
- Bullish Invalidation: Bulls need a clean daily close back above $4,410 with follow-through to $4,430 to neutralize today's damage. A confirmed recovery above $4,400 reopens the $4,449 high and targets the $4,500 round number above. That scenario is off the table unless buyers show up strong at $4,350.
๐ฐ WHAT'S MOVING GOLD
Today's PPI report delivered another inflation data point right after Wednesday's in-line CPI, and the combination triggered profit-taking from the recent two-month high. The Fed's September rate decision is still live. markets are pricing a 53.9% probability of rates holding at 3.50% to 3.75%, keeping rate-hike risk alive and capping gold's upside. Hormuz tensions and US-Iran geopolitical noise remain in the background, supporting a floor, but safe-haven demand alone isn't enough to absorb today's selling pressure. Central bank buying continues to provide structural support, but short-term specs are in control right now and they're leaning short.
โ ๏ธ HIGH-IMPACT EVENT
PPI (July) dropped today, August 13, and the market's reaction is the story. Following Wednesday's soft CPI, a hotter-than-expected PPI revives Fed tightening fears and sends gold lower toward $4,320. A soft PPI print matching or undercutting expectations supports the "Fed on hold" narrative and gives bulls a shot at reclaiming $4,400 into Friday.
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
- Aug 13 (Today): July PPI + Initial Jobless Claims (US)
- Aug 14: University of Michigan Inflation Expectations - Preliminary (August)
- Aug 18: July Industrial Production Data (US)
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